2026–2027 NFL season

PickGPT Week 1 predictions

Independent winners, confidence points, and Yahoo-style weekly tiebreakers. Every selection locks on its applicable deadline.

gpt-5.6-terraretainedPrompt 2026.2

Week 1 score

Record0-0
Accuracy—
Confidence0/136
Points rate—

Season tracker

How the model is doing

Record0-0
Accuracy—
Confidence0/0
Points rate—
Token-efficient analysis schedule
Last model analysis: Thu, Aug 27, 5:41 PM EDT Automatic requests: 0/6 Next checkpoint: Wednesday final · Wed, Sep 9, 12:20 PM EDT

Latest timing decision: No prediction checkpoint is due

Yahoo weekly tiebreakers

Tiebreaker 1 — Game Score Predictions

Derived from the final two games in Yahoo order. Each score locks at its game’s kickoff.

Tiebreak Game 1Open

DAL at NYG

DAL 26, NYG 23

Final: Game not final

Yahoo-style errors calculate after the game

Tiebreak Game 2Open

DEN at KC

DEN 20, KC 23

Final: Game not final

Yahoo-style errors calculate after the game

Week mean total error: — · Season mean total error: —

Tiebreaker 2 — Highest and Lowest Scoring Teams

These selections lock at the week’s earliest kickoff. Any team tied at the actual extreme counts as correct. Source: deterministic-fallback.

Highest scoring teamPending

LAC

Actual: Pending

Lowest scoring teamPending

CLE

Actual: Pending

Week: 0/0 · Season accuracy: —
Game 1Updates until kickoff

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

PickSEA
Confidence8
Win chance62%
Pending
Sportsbook
SEA −3.5
Yahoo public
SEA 80%
Kalshi spread
SEA −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
SEA 62% high
  • Seattle is a 3.5-point home favorite with a 62% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment strongly favors Seattle (84%).
  • No 2026 efficiency, QB-status, or injury data is supplied to create a football-based countercase.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 2Updates until kickoff

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

PickLA
Confidence10
Win chance63%
Pending
Sportsbook
LA −3.5
Yahoo public
LA 79%
Kalshi spread
LA −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
LA 63% high
  • Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite and carries a 62.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up picks favor the Rams 90%-10%.
  • The game is at a neutral site, limiting normal home-field interpretation.
TNF_cap_8neutral_sitedivisional_gameweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesmarket_and_public_agreeroad-divisionalTNF-volatilityhigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreementdivisionalprimetime

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 3Updates until kickoff

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

PickCIN
Confidence12
Win chance65%
Pending
Sportsbook
CIN −3.5
Yahoo public
CIN 73%
Kalshi spread
CIN −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
CIN 65% high
  • Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 points with a 64.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Cincinnati 80%-20%.
  • No current-season efficiency, QB, line-play, or injury evidence is supplied against the market favorite.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 4Updates until kickoff

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

PickDET
Confidence14
Win chance75%
Pending
Sportsbook
DET −7
Yahoo public
DET 91%
Kalshi spread
DET −6.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
DET 75% high
  • Detroit is a 7-point home favorite with a 75% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment is 97% on Detroit.
  • Ford Field removes weather variability.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesmarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 5Updates until kickoff

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

PickTEN
Confidence3
Win chance56%
Pending
Sportsbook
TEN −3
Yahoo public
TEN 79%
Kalshi spread
TEN −2.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
TEN 56% high
  • Tennessee is a narrow 3-point home favorite with a 55.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up picks favor Tennessee 86%-14%.
  • The 38.5 total and near-pick'em moneyline indicate a low-margin outcome.
near_toss_upweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement
Game 6Updates until kickoff

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

PickBAL
Confidence9
Win chance62%
Pending
Sportsbook
BAL −3.5
Yahoo public
IND 22%
Kalshi spread
BAL −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
BAL 62% high
  • Baltimore is a 3.5-point road favorite with a 62% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment backs Baltimore 83%-17% despite Indianapolis being labeled the Yahoo favorite.
  • Baltimore holds a 5-2 edge in the supplied seven-game series sample.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesmarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-divergence

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 7Updates until kickoff

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

PickPIT
Confidence7
Win chance61%
Pending
Sportsbook
PIT −3
Yahoo public
PIT 79%
Kalshi spread
PIT −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
PIT 61% high
  • Pittsburgh is a 3-point home favorite and has a 61% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Pittsburgh 85%-15%.
  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 in the supplied recent head-to-head sample, though those games are not current-season efficiency evidence.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement
Game 8Updates until kickoff

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

PickCHI
Confidence5
Win chance59%
Pending
Sportsbook
CHI −2.5
Yahoo public
CAR 17%
Kalshi spread
CHI −2.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
CHI 59% high
  • Chicago is a 2.5-point road favorite with a 58.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment strongly backs Chicago (88%).
  • Chicago leads the supplied series sample 6-1.
road_favoritenear_toss_upweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-divergence
Game 9Updates until kickoff

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

PickJAX
Confidence15
Win chance77%
Pending
Sportsbook
JAX −7.5
Yahoo public
JAX 89%
Kalshi spread
JAX −7.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
JAX 77% high
  • Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home favorite with a 77% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Jacksonville 95%-5%.
  • The market has Jacksonville as one of the slate's clearest straight-up favorites.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 10Updates until kickoff

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

PickBUF
Confidence2
Win chance53%
Pending
Sportsbook
BUF −1.5
Yahoo public
HOU 23%
Kalshi spread
HOU −null high
Kalshi moneyline
HOU 50% high
  • Sportsbook pricing makes Buffalo a slight road favorite (-118 moneyline; -1.5 spread).
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Buffalo 80%-20%.
  • Kalshi moneyline is exactly 50% on Houston, so this remains effectively a toss-up rather than a strong Buffalo edge.
near_toss_upmarket_disagreementweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injurieshigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-divergenceyahoo-public-divergence
Game 11Updates until kickoff

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

PickLV
Confidence11
Win chance64%
Pending
Sportsbook
LV −3.5
Yahoo public
LV 77%
Kalshi spread
LV −3.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
LV 64% high
  • Las Vegas is a 3.5-point home favorite with a 63.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Las Vegas 84%-16%.
  • The dome venue removes weather uncertainty.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesmarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 12Updates until kickoff

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

PickMIN
Confidence1
Win chance53%
Pending
Sportsbook
MIN −1.5
Yahoo public
MIN 32%
Kalshi spread
GB −null high
Kalshi moneyline
MIN 52% high
  • Minnesota is a slight sportsbook favorite (-118 moneyline; -1.5 spread) and has a 52.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Minnesota leads the supplied divisional series sample 6-4 and won the most recent meeting in Minneapolis.
  • The conflicting Kalshi spread metadata and one-point market range leave little separation.
near_toss_updivisional_gamemarket_data_inconsistencyweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesroad-divisionalhigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreementdivisional
Game 13Updates until kickoff

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

PickPHI
Confidence13
Win chance67%
Pending
Sportsbook
PHI −4.5
Yahoo public
PHI 88%
Kalshi spread
PHI −4.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
PHI 67% high
  • Philadelphia is a 4.5-point home favorite with a 66.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Philadelphia 94%-6%.
  • Philadelphia owns a 7-3 advantage in the supplied divisional series sample.
divisional_gameweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreeroad-divisionalhigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreementdivisional

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 14Updates until kickoff

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

PickLAC
Confidence16
Win chance82%
Pending
Sportsbook
LAC −10.5
Yahoo public
LAC 92%
Kalshi spread
LAC −9.5 medium
Kalshi moneyline
LAC 82% high
  • Los Angeles is a 10.5-point favorite with an 82% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors the Chargers 97%-3%.
  • The moneyline signal is high quality, although the corresponding spread market is only medium quality.
week_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesmedium_quality_spread_marketmarket_and_public_agreehigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreement

The fixed confidence pool required a value above this game’s preferred cap.

Game 15Updates until kickoff

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

PickDAL
Confidence6
Win chance60%

Yahoo tiebreaker: DAL 26, NYG 23

Pending
Sportsbook
DAL −2.5
Yahoo public
NYG 29%
Kalshi spread
DAL −2.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
DAL 60% high
  • Dallas is a 2.5-point road favorite with a 59.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • Yahoo straight-up sentiment favors Dallas 76%-24%.
  • Dallas holds a 9-1 edge in the supplied series sample, but this is still a road divisional game with a narrow market edge.
SNF_volatility_penaltyroad_divisional_cap_7divisional_gameweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailablemarket_and_public_agreeroad-divisionalprimetime-volatilityhigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-divergencedivisionalprimetime
Game 16Updates until kickoff

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

PickKC
Confidence4
Win chance56%

Yahoo tiebreaker: DEN 20, KC 23

Pending
Sportsbook
KC −3
Yahoo public
KC 44%
Kalshi spread
KC −2.5 high
Kalshi moneyline
KC 56% high
  • Kansas City is a 3-point home favorite with a 55.5% Kalshi moneyline probability.
  • The low 42.5 total and narrow moneyline indicate a one-possession profile.
  • Yahoo primary sentiment slightly prefers Denver, creating public-versus-market disagreement.
MNF_volatility_penaltydivisional_gamenear_toss_uppublic_market_disagreementweek_1_no_2026_team_performance_datano_reported_injuriesweather_unavailableroad-divisionalprimetime-volatilityhigh-confidence-gatefive-pillar-gatesportsbook-agreementkalshi-agreementyahoo-public-agreementdivisionalprimetime

Season archive

Week-by-week record

Week 1upcoming

Self-calibration

Learning from completed picks

0 settled picks · Brier score — · probability adjustment +0 points.

Segment adjustments begin once enough completed picks are available.