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Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Indianapolis gets the slight edge after scoring 26.3 points per game in its last three, versus Pittsburgh's 19.0.", "The Colts have a 44.0% offensive success rate and allow a 42.4% defensive success rate over three games; Pittsburgh allows 49.4% and has surrendered 24.7 points per game.", "Risk: Pittsburgh is the 2.5-point home favorite with a 58.5% Kalshi win probability, and Indianapolis has defensive-front practice absences." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Indianapolis defensive-front practice concerns" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Indianapolis defensive-front practice concerns", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "awayMoneyline": 124, "homeMoneyline": -148, "totalLine": 44.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.42794036443953615, "homeProbability": 0.5720596355604638, "overround": 0.04320276497695863, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 124, "homeMoneyline": -148 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "IND", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 33, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "raw": { "key": "IND-PIT", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=", "favoritePickPct": 66, "underdogPickPct": 34, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 52, "underdogPickPct": 48, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 53, "underdogPickPct": 47, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 6.4, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "PIT", "underdog": "IND" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-05T01:05:00.911107Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-09T13:41:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.52, "yesAsk": 0.53 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.585, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-09-29T04:05:00.889551Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-09T13:43:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.58, "yesAsk": 0.59 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "PIT", "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 0, "ifPickDisagrees": -1 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-09T13:41:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "assessedAgeMs": 136562, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "assessedAgeMs": 16562, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-09T13:43:18.550Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [ { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": 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"status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" } ], "unknownInjuryCount": 7, "injuryCoverage": "listed-players-only" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [ { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" } ], "unknownInjuryCount": 5, "injuryCoverage": "listed-players-only" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "8a780eae57bca131bb5e4887cf5c2372ecf797c53f175eeb3e32c011a5877c7c" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Arden Key", "position": "DE", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Ashton Dulin", "position": "WR", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Charvarius Ward", "position": "CB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Grover Stewart", "position": "DT", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jaylon Carlies", "position": "LB", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Keenan Allen", "position": "WR", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Tanor Bortolini", "position": "C", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "DeShon Elliott", "position": "S", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jalen Ramsey", "position": "CB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jamel Dean", "position": "CB", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Michael Pittman", "position": "WR", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Rico Dowdle", "position": "RB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "totalLine": 44.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5720596355604638 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoritePickPct": 67, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.585, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "manual-force-2026-10-09T13:43:18.550Z" ], "type": "manual", "label": "Manual forced analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "locked": false, "lockedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-11T16:55:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "result": null, "outcome": "pending", "earnedConfidencePoints": 0, "tiebreakerResult": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "yahooOrder": 10, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "NYG", "name": "New York Giants", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "WAS", "name": "Washington Commanders", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "NYG", "modelWinProbability": 0.576, "rankingScore": 57.599999999999994, "winProbability": 0.576, "confidencePoints": 7, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-09T13:43:18.550Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -2, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor Washington Commanders by 3.5 points. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 37% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New York Giants averaged 18 points and Washington Commanders 22. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Washington Commanders have a quarterback concern to watch: Marcus Mariota (listed DNP). Practice limits do not mean a player is ruled out." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Giants are the lean because Washington's defense has allowed 32.7 points per game over its last three and the Giants enter at 3-1.", "New York has allowed -0.044 defensive EPA per play over three games, while Washington's defense allows 0.029 and a 49.5% success rate.", "Risk: Washington is the 3.5-point home favorite with a 62.5% Kalshi win probability; this is also a road divisional pick. Washington's extensive report is practice-only, not a set " ], "rawModelFlags": [ "selected-road-divisional", "market favorite disagreement", "Washington defense downtrend" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Washington defense downtrend", "divisional", "road-divisional", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "WAS", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192, "totalLine": 42.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.3690596562184025, "homeProbability": 0.6309403437815976, "overround": 0.04214963119072701, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "NYG", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 55, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "raw": { "key": "NYG-WAS", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "WAS", "underdogAbbr": "NYG", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "WAS", "underdogAbbr": "NYG", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 93, "underdogPickPct": 7, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 10.1, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.5, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (0-2)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-1)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "DET", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 70, "underdogPickPct": 30, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 8.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 6.1, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (0-2)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-1)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DET", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": 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"retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, 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"value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "bd07bab7a9184bc93c5390c97bdc8cf85a1fd147424bf43238439cf46b170ca1" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "State Farm Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": null, "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Ben Bartch", "position": "G", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Brian Branch", "position": "S", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Cade Mays", "position": "C", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "D.J. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 41% win chance.", "Over the last three games, San Francisco 49ers averaged 31.7 points and Seattle Seahawks 30.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "These are division opponents. Treat this as a familiar matchup, not a safe pick based on the betting line alone." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "San Francisco is the narrow pick because it is 4-0 and has the slate's strongest recent offense, scoring 31.7 points per game over three games.", "The 49ers have generated 0.306 offensive EPA per play and a 53.0% success rate in that sample, compared with Seattle's 0.017 EPA and 46.7% success rate.", "Risk: Seattle is the 3-point home favorite and has allowed -0.107 EPA per play over its last three; San Francisco also has Nick Bosa and another defensive lineman listed as " ], "rawModelFlags": [ "selected-road-divisional", "market favorite disagreement", "San Francisco defensive-line practice concerns", "Seattle offense uptrend" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "San Francisco defensive-line practice concerns", "Seattle offense uptrend", "divisional", "road-divisional", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "SEA", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 136, "homeMoneyline": -162, "totalLine": 45.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.4066302458405761, "homeProbability": 0.593369754159424, "overround": 0.042049424246344946, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 136, "homeMoneyline": -162 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "SF", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 44, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 74% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Cincinnati Bengals averaged 21.3 points and Miami Dolphins 11. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Cincinnati Bengals do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cincinnati is the strongest side against Miami's 0-4 start and the Dolphins' struggling offense; sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo all favor the Bengals.", "Miami has scored just 11.0 points per game over its last 3, while Cincinnati has scored 21.3 and has the better recent efficiency on both sides of the ball.", "The Bengals have lost their last 2 games and are on the road, while official injury reports are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "Miami-offense-downtrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "Miami-offense-downtrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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"eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z" } }, { "id": "4b0bb5d07ba4f38383872db7dbcbe103801aeb5a146f641e0dee108c5fed689c", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.686Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "16c92520d61980d780585e8e0fe12c12dbc9a7008af096d667dfd740537dd95a", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-5.6-terra", "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "algorithmVersion": "football-rating-points-v1", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "NO", "name": "New Orleans Saints", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "MIN", "modelWinProbability": 0.58, "rankingScore": 57.89302844482732, "winProbability": 0.58, "confidencePoints": 13, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "MIN", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5789302844482732, "homeProbability": 0.4210697155517268, "footballFavorite": "MIN", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "aeb9ba2a59611c5af6cb468415f4cca72cec919a4f37cbc265c44673c9687cf8", "sourceRef": "a46f38c9b7028a0eb983517a25d8ffbf28565d577f6d4d939296dd5bc9e38f02", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Minnesota Vikings are favored by 1.5 points on the road. 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Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's 4-0 record and recent defense make it the pick, with the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo also leaning Vikings.", "The Vikings have allowed 9.7 points per game over their last 3, while New Orleans has allowed 32.3; Minnesota's defense has forced opponents into far fewer successful plays.", "Minnesota's offense has averaged only 15.7 points in that 3-game sample and has not scored a red-zone touchdown in it, so this remains close despite New Orleans' defensive issues." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", 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"captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-5.6-terra", "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "algorithmVersion": "football-rating-points-v1", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "yahooOrder": 8, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Browns", "restDays": 10 }, "home": { "abbr": "NYJ", "name": "New York Jets", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "CLE", "modelWinProbability": 0.56, "rankingScore": 50.95409590751956, "winProbability": 0.56, "confidencePoints": 5, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "CLE", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5095409590751956, "homeProbability": 0.4904590409248044, "footballFavorite": "CLE", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "da37886a0a26b6d762ec6917361cb5099839a10eb22ed9e436d6e0a87ad7cb4d", "sourceRef": "0cf146d3d95b0f8cfc7e5849e44b09831372079bbc16f8064ba823cef9f27e40", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 46% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Cleveland Browns averaged 23.7 points and New York Jets 17.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Cleveland Browns do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cleveland is the upset pick after winning three straight, with a better recent offense and defense than the Jets despite New York being the small market favorite.", "Over the last 3 games, the Browns have scored 23.7 points and allowed 20.3; the Jets have scored 17.7 and allowed 24.7.", "New York has home field and both the sportsbook and Kalshi markets favor the Jets, while Cleveland's injury report is not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-opposition" ], 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"quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.51, "yesAsk": 0.52 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.55, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-09-29T04:05:00.889551Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.54, "yesAsk": 0.56 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "NYJ", "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 0, "ifPickDisagrees": -1 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": 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"homeProbability": 0.4915002203369643, "footballFavorite": "IND", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "26f27234162b1acd30e5eecfa362e9180b27b2fc36668bc46df68cec9f0841fe", "sourceRef": "bfe0fa8d4f13586ddacbf9b4ae2a89525bf3396196567fbaeac967c5ebc0488e", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 44% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Indianapolis Colts averaged 26.3 points and Pittsburgh Steelers 19. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Indianapolis Colts do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Indianapolis is a slight upset pick because it has been the more reliable recent scoring team, averaging 26.3 points over its last 3.", "The Colts have scored 26.3 points per game over 3 games compared with Pittsburgh's 19.0, and Indianapolis has allowed 21.0 versus Pittsburgh allowing 24.7.", "Pittsburgh is at home with 10 days of rest and is favored by the supplied markets; both teams' injury reports are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 42% win chance.", "Over the last three games, San Francisco 49ers averaged 31.7 points and Seattle Seahawks 30.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "San Francisco 49ers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "San Francisco is the upset pick on the strength of its 4-0 start and explosive recent offense, even though Seattle is the home market favorite.", "The 49ers have scored 31.7 points per game over their last 3 and generated successful plays on 53.0% of snaps; Seattle has scored 30.7 but San Francisco's offense has been more ", "Seattle is 3-1, has allowed only 18.3 points per game for the season, and is favored by the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo. 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"weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "20:20", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 8:20 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-12T00:20:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "BAL", "name": "Baltimore Ravens", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Falcons", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "BAL", "modelWinProbability": 0.56, "rankingScore": 51.45021960825164, "winProbability": 0.56, "confidencePoints": 6, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "BAL", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5145021960825165, "homeProbability": 0.4854978039174835, "footballFavorite": "BAL", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "07dc25bf8deb33c54bf7f94de07ef058be1e945712330a17491d6b08d02ca8ee", "sourceRef": 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "86d01daa25bdc2b0825b82a62c280ed68a9cc005d6bc47622275de3407af6427" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.10-pregame-review", "gameId": "2026_05_TB_DAL", "kickoff": "2026-10-09T00:15:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": null, "surface": "matrixturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [ { "player": "Baker Mayfield", "position": "QB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Drew Shelton", "position": "T", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", 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[ "emergency-2026-5" ], "type": "emergency", "label": "Critical late-change analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z" } }, { "id": "132b209fa12392b31b3803de0e8d4784957653fb84ef9ef5a0e18145b1b4f5a6", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameId": "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-08T06:07:25.682Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:36.004Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "7d08270d3851cc5c0ca0a078f67098394d2fc488b2a6ff3cc5b74dd0177f5448", "publicationSourceRef": "959fba20969f439b1d8bf0984faf675bb124d338663e4d352863176d941d7a6a", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-5.6-terra", "promptVersion": "2026.10-pregame-review", "algorithmVersion": "football-rating-points-v1", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "yahooOrder": 2, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "09:30", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 9:30 am EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "PHI", "name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "JAX", "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "JAX", "modelWinProbability": 0.735, "rankingScore": 69.00088713726223, "winProbability": 0.735, "confidencePoints": 15, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "JAX", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.6900088713726222, "homeProbability": 0.6900088713726222, "footballFavorite": "JAX", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "872f8e7f2deb37d68628c32baf415c39ee1a5c0af2cbc0807763e23ae06fbd24", "sourceRef": "61c66f9bd4c4f43294eac583952a25e65537dfb1880e523e5112319dffc99239", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Jacksonville Jaguars averaged 23.3 points and Philadelphia Eagles 17. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Jacksonville Jaguars do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Jacksonville has the stronger four-game profile at 3-1 with only 13.3 points allowed per game, and it is favored by the sportsbook and Kalshi markets.", "Over the last 3 games, the Jaguars have scored 23.3 points and allowed 14.3; Philadelphia has scored 17.0 and allowed 23.7.", "This is an overseas, exposed-stadium game, and official injury reporting for both teams is not yet due at the cutoff." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "outdoor-weather-details-unavailable" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "outdoor-weather-details-unavailable", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 54% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Minnesota Vikings averaged 15.7 points and New Orleans Saints 25. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Minnesota Vikings do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's 4-0 record and recent defense make it the pick, with the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo also leaning Vikings.", "The Vikings have allowed 9.7 points per game over their last 3, while New Orleans has allowed 32.3; Minnesota's defense has forced opponents into far fewer successful plays.", "Minnesota's offense has averaged only 15.7 points in that 3-game sample and has not scored a red-zone touchdown in it, so this remains close despite New Orleans' defensive issues." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", 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"favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 74, "underdogPickPct": 26, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.2, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.1, "favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 60, "underdogPickPct": 40, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.3, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": 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"exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "enclosed", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "sheltered", "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "location": "Home", "roof": "dome" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:17:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 389953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "locationType": 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"39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "CLE", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5095409590751956, "homeProbability": 0.4904590409248044, "footballFavorite": "CLE", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "da37886a0a26b6d762ec6917361cb5099839a10eb22ed9e436d6e0a87ad7cb4d", "sourceRef": "0cf146d3d95b0f8cfc7e5849e44b09831372079bbc16f8064ba823cef9f27e40", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor New York Jets by 2.5 points. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 46% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Cleveland Browns averaged 23.7 points and New York Jets 17.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Cleveland Browns do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cleveland is the upset pick after winning three straight, with a better recent offense and defense than the Jets despite New York being the small market favorite.", "Over the last 3 games, the Browns have scored 23.7 points and allowed 20.3; the Jets have scored 17.7 and allowed 24.7.", "New York has home field and both the sportsbook and Kalshi markets favor the Jets, while Cleveland's injury report is not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-opposition" ], 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"home": 27 }, "isTiebreaker": true, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 points. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 37% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Las Vegas Raiders averaged 29.3 points and New England Patriots 18.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Las Vegas Raiders do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Las Vegas is a narrow upset pick because its offense has been far more productive: 29.3 points per game over the last 3, including two road wins.", "The Raiders have scored 29.3 recent points per game versus New England's 18.3, and Las Vegas has produced a positive per-play offensive profile while the Patriots' has been below a", "New England is the market favorite at home, and the Raiders face a west-to-east early kickoff. Injury reports for both teams are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "body-clock", "recent-offensive-edge", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "body-clock", "recent-offensive-edge", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NE", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192, "totalLine": 45.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.3690596562184025, "homeProbability": 0.6309403437815976, "overround": 0.04214963119072701, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192 } }, "observedAt": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "LV", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 35, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "raw": { "key": "LV-NE", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=", "favoritePickPct": 66, "underdogPickPct": 34, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (1-0)", "underdogRecord": "3-1 (2-0)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 50, "underdogPickPct": 50, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (1-0)", "underdogRecord": "3-1 (2-0)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 65, "underdogPickPct": 35, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.3, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.9, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (1-0)", "underdogRecord": "3-1 (2-0)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 49, "underdogPickPct": 51, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 5.1, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (1-0)", "underdogRecord": "3-1 (2-0)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NE", "underdogAbbr": "LV", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 65, "underdogPickPct": 35, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.3, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.9, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (1-0)", "underdogRecord": "3-1 (2-0)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "NE", "underdog": "LV" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "NE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-04T22:05:00.942287Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:22:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.5, "yesAsk": 0.51 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "NE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.635, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-09-29T04:05:00.889551Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:22:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.63, "yesAsk": 0.64 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "NE", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Gillette Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Gillette Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_LV_NE", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:22:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 89953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:22:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 89953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_LV_NE", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Gillette Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "totalLine": 45.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6309403437815976 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "NE", "favoritePickPct": 65, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "NE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "NE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.635, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z" } }, { "id": "2606a49a56a3938c8491a31ff3c4ec2d6b7e9ffda733e8b729601922d1ce90da", "season": 2026, "week": 5, "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-08T23:22:25.408Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.977Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "16c92520d61980d780585e8e0fe12c12dbc9a7008af096d667dfd740537dd95a", "publicationSourceRef": "54554ff01de43dafa3862e6fbd7cf0804fe5b3a8e36a2a989f538ff018df8d9f", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-5.6-terra", "promptVersion": "2026.10-pregame-review", "algorithmVersion": "football-rating-points-v1", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "NO", "name": "New Orleans Saints", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "MIN", "modelWinProbability": 0.58, "rankingScore": 57.89302844482732, "winProbability": 0.58, "confidencePoints": 13, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "MIN", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5789302844482732, "homeProbability": 0.4210697155517268, "footballFavorite": "MIN", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "aeb9ba2a59611c5af6cb468415f4cca72cec919a4f37cbc265c44673c9687cf8", "sourceRef": "a46f38c9b7028a0eb983517a25d8ffbf28565d577f6d4d939296dd5bc9e38f02", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Minnesota Vikings are favored by 1.5 points on the road. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 54% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Minnesota Vikings averaged 15.7 points and New Orleans Saints 25. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Minnesota Vikings do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's 4-0 record and recent defense make it the pick, with the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo also leaning Vikings.", "The Vikings have allowed 9.7 points per game over their last 3, while New Orleans has allowed 32.3; Minnesota's defense has forced opponents into far fewer successful plays.", "Minnesota's offense has averaged only 15.7 points in that 3-game sample and has not scored a red-zone touchdown in it, so this remains close despite New Orleans' defensive issues." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "MIN", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "awayMoneyline": -130, "homeMoneyline": 110, "totalLine": 42.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.5427435387673957, "homeProbability": 0.4572564612326044, "overround": 0.04140786749482395, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": -130, "homeMoneyline": 110 } }, "observedAt": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "MIN", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 74, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "raw": { "key": "MIN-NO", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": 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"favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 74, "underdogPickPct": 26, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.2, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.1, "favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 60, "underdogPickPct": 40, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.3, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "4-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 39% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Baltimore Ravens averaged 25 points and Atlanta Falcons 27.7. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Baltimore Ravens do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Baltimore is the slight upset pick because its recent offense has been more efficient and it has a 3-1 record, despite Atlanta being favored by the sportsbook and Kalshi.", "The Ravens have produced 25.0 points per game in their last 3 with a 72.7% red-zone touchdown rate; Atlanta has scored 27.7 but its scoring has been highly volatile.", "Atlanta is at home, has won two straight, and is the market favorite. This is also a Sunday night game, and neither team's injury report is due yet. 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"fingerprint": "fbd7261baf0eeea10000899be5e1e47dd8a211928f5e54667420b815b09c3342", "sourceRef": "77988fe6398d33a76f4b52df1df3f624d8572d710836c77cb3b22538a6c7f82c", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": { "away": 30, "home": 27 }, "isTiebreaker": true, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 points. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 37% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Las Vegas Raiders averaged 29.3 points and New England Patriots 18.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Las Vegas Raiders do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Las Vegas is a narrow upset pick because its offense has been far more productive: 29.3 points per game over the last 3, including two road wins.", "The Raiders have scored 29.3 recent points per game versus New England's 18.3, and Las Vegas has produced a positive per-play offensive profile while the Patriots' has been below a", "New England is the market favorite at home, and the Raiders face a west-to-east early kickoff. 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"NE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "totalLine": 45.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6309403437815976 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "NE", "favoritePickPct": 65, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "NE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "NE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.635, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "NO", "name": "New Orleans Saints", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "MIN", "modelWinProbability": 0.58, "rankingScore": 57.89302844482732, "winProbability": 0.58, "confidencePoints": 13, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "MIN", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5789302844482732, "homeProbability": 0.4210697155517268, "footballFavorite": "MIN", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "aeb9ba2a59611c5af6cb468415f4cca72cec919a4f37cbc265c44673c9687cf8", "sourceRef": "a46f38c9b7028a0eb983517a25d8ffbf28565d577f6d4d939296dd5bc9e38f02", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Minnesota Vikings are favored by 1.5 points on the road. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 54% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Minnesota Vikings averaged 15.7 points and New Orleans Saints 25. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Minnesota Vikings do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's 4-0 record and recent defense make it the pick, with the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo also leaning Vikings.", "The Vikings have allowed 9.7 points per game over their last 3, while New Orleans has allowed 32.3; Minnesota's defense has forced opponents into far fewer successful plays.", "Minnesota's offense has averaged only 15.7 points in that 3-game sample and has not scored a red-zone touchdown in it, so this remains close despite New Orleans' defensive issues." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", 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Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Indianapolis is a slight upset pick because it has been the more reliable recent scoring team, averaging 26.3 points over its last 3.", "The Colts have scored 26.3 points per game over 3 games compared with Pittsburgh's 19.0, and Indianapolis has allowed 21.0 versus Pittsburgh allowing 24.7.", "Pittsburgh is at home with 10 days of rest and is favored by the supplied markets; both teams' injury reports are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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"Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "enclosed", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "sheltered", "roof": "dome", "surface": "matrixturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "SoFi Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "dome" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:18:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 329953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", 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"spreadFavorite": "DEN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "DEN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.625, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "yahooOrder": 12, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "16:25", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "DET", "name": "Detroit Lions", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "ARI", "name": "Arizona Cardinals", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "DET", "modelWinProbability": 0.7, "rankingScore": 55.55769284299083, "winProbability": 0.7, "confidencePoints": 11, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "DET", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5555769284299084, "homeProbability": 0.44442307157009164, "footballFavorite": "DET", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "5d44f242e58d0cd18c74ba790dce1ffa29890f7b5d757ee61aad6425fd71dcbd", "sourceRef": "22de2724bebf85cac1ee3d788757b217554de9acc8a2f3f902d3c515090f5303", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Detroit Lions are favored by 4.5 points on the road. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 66% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Detroit Lions averaged 29.3 points and Arizona Cardinals 20.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Detroit Lions do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Detroit's high-powered offense is the main reason to pick the Lions, supported by sportsbook, Kalshi, and overwhelming Yahoo support.", "Detroit has scored 29.3 points per game over its last 3, while Arizona has allowed 34.3; the Lions' offense has generated successful plays on 51.3% of snaps in that sample.", "Detroit has allowed 32.3 points per game over its last 3 and is 0-2 away from home, giving Arizona a realistic path in a high-total game." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "recent-offensive-edge", "recent-defensive-concern", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-offensive-edge", "recent-defensive-concern", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", 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"sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": 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"2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "yahooOrder": 13, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "16:25", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "SF", "name": "San Francisco 49ers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "SEA", "name": "Seattle Seahawks", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "SF", "modelWinProbability": 0.57, "rankingScore": 38.002477674424014, "winProbability": 0.57, "confidencePoints": 2, "confidenceCap": 7, 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 42% win chance.", "Over the last three games, San Francisco 49ers averaged 31.7 points and Seattle Seahawks 30.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "San Francisco 49ers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "San Francisco is the upset pick on the strength of its 4-0 start and explosive recent offense, even though Seattle is the home market favorite.", "The 49ers have scored 31.7 points per game over their last 3 and generated successful plays on 53.0% of snaps; Seattle has scored 30.7 but San Francisco's offense has been more ", "Seattle is 3-1, has allowed only 18.3 points per game for the season, and is favored by the sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo. San Francisco is also the road side in a divisional game." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "road-divisional", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "road-divisional", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "SEA", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 130, "homeMoneyline": -155, "totalLine": 47.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.4170073589533933, "homeProbability": 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 57, "underdogPickPct": 43, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 4.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.4, "favoriteRecord": "3-1 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "4-0 (1-0)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "SEA", "underdog": "SF" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "SEA", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-05T01:05:00.911107Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:19:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.53, "yesAsk": 0.54 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "SEA", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.585, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-09-29T04:05:00.889551Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.58, "yesAsk": 0.59 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "SEA", "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 0, "ifPickDisagrees": -1 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [ "divisional", "road-divisional" ], "selectedRoadDivisional": true, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Lumen Field", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Lumen Field", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:19:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 269953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_SF_SEA", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Lumen Field", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "SEA", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "totalLine": 47.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5829926410466066 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "SEA", "favoritePickPct": 57, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "SEA", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "SEA", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.585, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "yahooOrder": 14, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "20:20", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 8:20 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-12T00:20:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "BAL", "name": "Baltimore Ravens", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "ATL", "name": "Atlanta Falcons", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "BAL", "modelWinProbability": 0.56, "rankingScore": 51.45021960825164, "winProbability": 0.56, "confidencePoints": 6, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "BAL", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5145021960825165, "homeProbability": 0.4854978039174835, "footballFavorite": "BAL", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "07dc25bf8deb33c54bf7f94de07ef058be1e945712330a17491d6b08d02ca8ee", "sourceRef": "4b4867f9b43d3d413284a8d83b1e4a47c6e4a829cae9e5ad657a48a7ae3e1f4c", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T06:07:35.945Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -2, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 39% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Baltimore Ravens averaged 25 points and Atlanta Falcons 27.7. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Baltimore Ravens do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Baltimore is the slight upset pick because its recent offense has been more efficient and it has a 3-1 record, despite Atlanta being favored by the sportsbook and Kalshi.", "The Ravens have produced 25.0 points per game in their last 3 with a 72.7% red-zone touchdown rate; Atlanta has scored 27.7 but its scoring has been highly volatile.", "Atlanta is at home, has won two straight, and is the market favorite. This is also a Sunday night game, and neither team's injury report is due yet. The 23-20 projection stays near" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "SNF", "primetime-volatility", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "SNF", "primetime-volatility", "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "primetime", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "ATL", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 145, "homeMoneyline": -175, "totalLine": 43.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.39076376554174075, "homeProbability": 0.6092362344582594, 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Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cincinnati is the strongest side against Miami's 0-4 start and the Dolphins' struggling offense; sportsbook, Kalshi, and Yahoo all favor the Bengals.", "Miami has scored just 11.0 points per game over its last 3, while Cincinnati has scored 21.3 and has the better recent efficiency on both sides of the ball.", "The Bengals have lost their last 2 games and are on the road, while official injury reports are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "Miami-offense-downtrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "Miami-offense-downtrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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"2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:17:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 389953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_MIN_NO", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Caesars Superdome", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "totalLine": 42.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.4572564612326044 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoritePickPct": 74, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.555, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "yahooOrder": 8, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "CLE", "name": "Cleveland Browns", "restDays": 10 }, "home": { "abbr": "NYJ", "name": "New York Jets", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "CLE", "modelWinProbability": 0.56, "rankingScore": 50.95409590751956, "winProbability": 0.56, "confidencePoints": 5, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "CLE", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5095409590751956, "homeProbability": 0.4904590409248044, "footballFavorite": "CLE", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "da37886a0a26b6d762ec6917361cb5099839a10eb22ed9e436d6e0a87ad7cb4d", "sourceRef": "0cf146d3d95b0f8cfc7e5849e44b09831372079bbc16f8064ba823cef9f27e40", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 46% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Cleveland Browns averaged 23.7 points and New York Jets 17.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Cleveland Browns do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cleveland is the upset pick after winning three straight, with a better recent offense and defense than the Jets despite New York being the small market favorite.", "Over the last 3 games, the Browns have scored 23.7 points and allowed 20.3; the Jets have scored 17.7 and allowed 24.7.", "New York has home field and both the sportsbook and Kalshi markets favor the Jets, while Cleveland's injury report is not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-opposition" ], 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 44% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Indianapolis Colts averaged 26.3 points and Pittsburgh Steelers 19. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Indianapolis Colts do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Indianapolis is a slight upset pick because it has been the more reliable recent scoring team, averaging 26.3 points over its last 3.", "The Colts have scored 26.3 points per game over 3 games compared with Pittsburgh's 19.0, and Indianapolis has allowed 21.0 versus Pittsburgh allowing 24.7.", "Pittsburgh is at home with 10 days of rest and is favored by the supplied markets; both teams' injury reports are not yet due." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market-favorite-disagreement", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", 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"adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-06T18:23:29.953Z", "assessedAgeMs": 29953, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.9-football-confidence-ranking", "gameId": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "totalLine": 44.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5634920634920635 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoritePickPct": 63, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.565, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-5" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Initial weekly analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_TB_DAL", "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "yahooOrder": 10, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "NYG", "name": "New York Giants", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "WAS", "name": "Washington Commanders", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "WAS", "modelWinProbability": 0.57, "rankingScore": 51.77917004973178, "winProbability": 0.57, "confidencePoints": 7, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "football-rating-points-v1", "footballAllocation": { "policy": "football-rating-points-v1", "variant": "rating-baseline", "candidateId": "39feafa122ac4e1c51c0979aa95cbb42b12b9b6e9fdff1b8f1f458ecc4a96111", "selectedTeam": "WAS", "selectedTeamProbability": 0.5177917004973178, "homeProbability": 0.5177917004973178, "footballFavorite": "WAS", "disagreesWithWinner": false, "fingerprint": "5a8c3a3a3a73f3e97114936de3974489ac9c1366c859dfec9b887b11d0ffecb1", "sourceRef": "59874c34ece33508e587a0099855af950b16690c41e28c526577edda3183eddf", "assessedAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "status": "experimental", "probabilityBasis": "binary-win-conditional-on-no-tie", "marketsUsed": false }, "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-08T23:22:34.917Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-06T18:23:32.118Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Washington Commanders are favored by 3.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 61% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Washington Commanders averaged 22 points and New York Giants 18. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Washington Commanders do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Washington gets the home-field nod because the sportsbook and Kalshi markets both make the Commanders a moderate favorite, and their recent matchup history favors Washington.", "Washington has scored 22.0 points per game over its last 3 compared with the Giants' 18.0, though both offenses have posted below-average recent per-play results.", "The Commanders have allowed 32.7 points per game over their last 3, while the Giants are 3-1; Washington's defensive trend is the central upset risk." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "recent-defensive-concern", "injury-reports-not-yet-due" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "recent-defensive-concern", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 39% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Baltimore Ravens averaged 25 points and Atlanta Falcons 27.7. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Baltimore Ravens do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Baltimore is the slight upset pick because its recent offense has been more efficient and it has a 3-1 record, despite Atlanta being favored by the sportsbook and Kalshi.", "The Ravens have produced 25.0 points per game in their last 3 with a 72.7% red-zone touchdown rate; Atlanta has scored 27.7 but its scoring has been highly volatile.", "Atlanta is at home, has won two straight, and is the market favorite. This is also a Sunday night game, and neither team's injury report is due yet. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 43% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Buffalo Bills averaged 30.3 points and Los Angeles Rams 26. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Buffalo Bills do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Buffalo is the narrow road upset pick behind its more productive offense: 30.3 points per game over the last 3, versus 26.0 for the Rams.", "The Bills have posted a 49.7% successful-play rate and 76.9% red-zone touchdown rate across 3 games; the Rams counter with a defense allowing only 18.7 points per game in that span", "Los Angeles is the home market favorite and its recent defense has been excellent, allowing a 34.4% successful-play rate. 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Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Indianapolis gets the slight edge after scoring 26.3 points per game in its last three, versus Pittsburgh's 19.0.", "The Colts have a 44.0% offensive success rate and allow a 42.4% defensive success rate over three games; Pittsburgh allows 49.4% and has surrendered 24.7 points per game.", "Risk: Pittsburgh is the 2.5-point home favorite with a 58.5% Kalshi win probability, and Indianapolis has defensive-front practice absences." ], "rawModelFlags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Indianapolis defensive-front practice concerns" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Indianapolis defensive-front practice concerns", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-divergence", 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"underdogPickPct": 48, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 53, "underdogPickPct": 47, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 6.4, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.8, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-2 (1-1)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "PIT", "underdog": "IND" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "8a780eae57bca131bb5e4887cf5c2372ecf797c53f175eeb3e32c011a5877c7c" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_05_IND_PIT", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Arden Key", "position": "DE", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Ashton Dulin", "position": "WR", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Charvarius Ward", "position": "CB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Grover Stewart", "position": "DT", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jaylon Carlies", "position": "LB", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Keenan Allen", "position": "WR", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Tanor Bortolini", "position": "C", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "DeShon Elliott", "position": "S", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jalen Ramsey", "position": "CB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Jamel Dean", "position": "CB", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Michael Pittman", "position": "WR", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Rico Dowdle", "position": "RB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "totalLine": 44.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5720596355604638 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoritePickPct": 67, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "PIT", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.585, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "manual-force-2026-10-09T13:43:18.550Z" ], "type": "manual", "label": "Manual forced analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_05_PHI_JAX", "2026_05_CHI_GB", "2026_05_HOU_TEN", "2026_05_CIN_MIA", "2026_05_LV_NE", "2026_05_MIN_NO", "2026_05_CLE_NYJ", "2026_05_IND_PIT", "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "2026_05_DEN_LAC", "2026_05_DET_ARI", "2026_05_SF_SEA", "2026_05_BAL_ATL", "2026_05_BUF_LA" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-11T16:55:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-06T18:24:11.626Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_05_NYG_WAS", "yahooOrder": 10, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-11", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "NYG", "name": "New York Giants", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "WAS", "name": "Washington Commanders", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "NYG", "modelWinProbability": 0.576, "rankingScore": 57.599999999999994, "winProbability": 0.576, "confidencePoints": 7, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.221Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-09T13:43:18.550Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -2, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor Washington Commanders by 3.5 points. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 37% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New York Giants averaged 18 points and Washington Commanders 22. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Washington Commanders have a quarterback concern to watch: Marcus Mariota (listed DNP). Practice limits do not mean a player is ruled out." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Giants are the lean because Washington's defense has allowed 32.7 points per game over its last three and the Giants enter at 3-1.", "New York has allowed -0.044 defensive EPA per play over three games, while Washington's defense allows 0.029 and a 49.5% success rate.", "Risk: Washington is the 3.5-point home favorite with a 62.5% Kalshi win probability; this is also a road divisional pick. Washington's extensive report is practice-only, not a set " ], "rawModelFlags": [ "selected-road-divisional", "market favorite disagreement", "Washington defense downtrend" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "Washington defense downtrend", "divisional", "road-divisional", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-divergence", "kalshi-divergence", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-opposition" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "WAS", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192, "totalLine": 42.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.3690596562184025, "homeProbability": 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 93, "underdogPickPct": 7, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 10.1, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.5, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (0-2)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-1)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "DET", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=5&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 70, "underdogPickPct": 30, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 8.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 6.1, "favoriteRecord": "2-2 (0-2)", "underdogRecord": "1-3 (0-1)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DET", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-09T13:43:16.562Z", "sourceUrl": 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "bd07bab7a9184bc93c5390c97bdc8cf85a1fd147424bf43238439cf46b170ca1" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_05_DET_ARI", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "State Farm Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": null, "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Ben Bartch", "position": "G", "severity": "dnp", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Brian Branch", "position": "S", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Cade Mays", "position": "C", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "D.J. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 41% win chance.", "Over the last three games, San Francisco 49ers averaged 31.7 points and Seattle Seahawks 30.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "These are division opponents. Treat this as a familiar matchup, not a safe pick based on the betting line alone." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "San Francisco is the narrow pick because it is 4-0 and has the slate's strongest recent offense, scoring 31.7 points per game over three games.", "The 49ers have generated 0.306 offensive EPA per play and a 53.0% success rate in that sample, compared with Seattle's 0.017 EPA and 46.7% success rate.", "Risk: Seattle is the 3-point home favorite and has allowed -0.107 EPA per play over its last three; San Francisco also has Nick Bosa and another defensive lineman listed as " ], "rawModelFlags": [ "selected-road-divisional", "market favorite disagreement", "San Francisco defensive-line practice concerns", "Seattle offense uptrend" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "market favorite disagreement", "San Francisco defensive-line practice concerns", "Seattle 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