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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "715872dd5daf947178a71aa9194a50cdd70fb8ef79be48a8d67167bc35786824" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Anthony Gould", "position": "WR", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Austin Ajiake", "position": "LB", "severity": "limited", "gameStatus": null, "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": 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"targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "locked": true, "lockedAt": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-25T15:02:34.664Z", "result": { "awayScore": 10, "homeScore": 16, "overtime": false }, "outcome": "correct", "earnedConfidencePoints": 13, "tiebreakerResult": null, "cardFrozen": true, "cardFrozenAt": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lockObservedAt": "2026-10-25T17:05:52.745Z", "resultObservedAt": "2026-10-25T20:15:53.546Z" }, { "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "yahooOrder": 6, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 66% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New York Jets averaged 16 points and Miami Dolphins 14.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "New York Jets list tackle Max Mitchell and defensive end Joseph Ossai as Out, plus 1 other players. Those absences reduce their available depth." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Jets have the better defensive profile against a winless Miami team. Sportsbook and fresh Kalshi win estimates agree near 66%, though New York's offensive limitations keep t", "Through six games, the Jets have scored 18.7 and allowed 20.3 points per game; Miami has scored 14 and allowed 26.4 through five. Over the last three games each, their offensive ", "The Jets list tackle Max Mitchell, defensive end Joseph Ossai and linebacker Francisco Mauigoa Out, with Breece Hall and Dylan Parham Questionable. Miami has cornerback Reese Tay" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "Jets-offensive-line-and-defensive-absences", "Breece-Hall-questionable", "injury-reports-listed-players-only", "injury-observation-times-unknown", "kalshi-quotes-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "Jets-offensive-line-and-defensive-absences", "Breece-Hall-questionable", "injury-reports-listed-players-only", "injury-observation-times-unknown", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 180, "homeMoneyline": -218, "totalLine": 39.5, "probabilityBaseline": { 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"reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-25T15:01:10.804Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-25T15:01:10.804Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-25T15:01:10.804Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-25T15:01:10.804Z", 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "5678280e3fd4ccba279251441e6bf82e365a7a5236a7ea1dff5dcee4845d52ce" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Kyle Louis", "position": "S", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Full Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Reese Taylor", "position": "CB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", 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"lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "totalLine": 39.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6574752261956054 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoritePickPct": 93, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.655, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-25T15:02:34.664Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "final-2026-7-sunday-weekly-2026-10-25-1130" ], "type": "final", "label": "Sunday full-week final", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "locked": true, "lockedAt": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-25T15:02:34.664Z", "result": { "awayScore": 28, "homeScore": 25, "overtime": false }, "outcome": "incorrect", "earnedConfidencePoints": 0, "tiebreakerResult": null, "cardFrozen": true, "cardFrozenAt": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lockObservedAt": "2026-10-25T17:05:52.745Z", "resultObservedAt": "2026-10-25T20:15:53.546Z" }, { "gameId": "2026_07_TB_CAR", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "TB", "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "CAR", "name": "Carolina Panthers", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "CAR", "modelWinProbability": 0.6232471402769416, "rankingScore": 62.324714027694164, "winProbability": 0.6232471402769416, "confidencePoints": 9, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-25T15:02:34.664Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-25T15:01:12.973Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Carolina Panthers are favored by 3 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 60% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Carolina Panthers averaged 25 points and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a quarterback concern to watch: Baker Mayfield (Questionable)." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Carolina's stronger offense and Tampa Bay's offensive absences support the Panthers at home. Sportsbooks and fresh Kalshi prices give Carolina about a 60% starting point.", "Carolina has averaged 29.2 points over five games versus Tampa Bay's 19.8 over six. Across the last three games each, the Panthers scored 25 per game to the Buccaneers' 19, while ", "Tampa Bay lists tackle Luke Goedeke, receiver Emeka Egbuka and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Out. Baker Mayfield is Questionable despite full practice participation; his starting r" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "Tampa-Bay-offensive-and-secondary-absences", "opponent-listed-QB-questionable-role-unverified", "Carolina-linebacker-absences", "injury-reports-listed-players-only", "injury-observation-times-unknown", "kalshi-quotes-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "Tampa-Bay-offensive-and-secondary-absences", "opponent-listed-QB-questionable-role-unverified", "Carolina-linebacker-absences", "injury-reports-listed-players-only", "injury-observation-times-unknown", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CAR", "state": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 60% win chance.", "Over the last three games, San Francisco 49ers averaged 26.3 points and Atlanta Falcons 30.3. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "San Francisco 49ers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "San Francisco's stronger defense and season-long scoring margin favor the 49ers. Across six games, San Francisco averages 29.5 points and allows 18.3; Atlanta averages", "Over three games, San Francisco allowed 20.0 points per game versus Atlanta's 28.3 and limited explosive plays more effectively. The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor", "Atlanta's offense is the danger: 30.3 points per game over three games, including a 45-point performance. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 54% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Cleveland Browns averaged 17.3 points and Tennessee Titans 15.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Cleveland Browns do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Cleveland's defense is the main reason to favor the Browns. Over three games, Cleveland allowed 17.0 points per game versus Tennessee's 23.3, with better defensive results", "Neither offense inspires much separation: Cleveland averaged 17.3 points over those three games and Tennessee 15.7. Across six games, Tennessee averages only 14.0 points.", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline give Cleveland approximately 54%, considerably less than its 83% Yahoo confidence-pool support. 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "3d54446f647f2219c73e13b77605ad433e40ac5b2c06d07115959beecd9a79e6" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Nissan Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "totalLine": 38.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.4572564612326044 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoritePickPct": 83, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CLE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CLE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.545, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z" } }, { "id": "f97daaaeadc12f25147a7489def27fb86686d8ec222e9de4d2a605087cb3ee4e", "season": 2026, "week": 7, "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.291Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "c422f23b99b6ad5b5f056ba7131d4b90054cc3ef04027f8fd5451dfb6761e6ae", "publicationSourceRef": "be5c23264accd869e5796dc89aa4a32e3cc76a150ec008559f1109cf3a6e61cd", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-6.1-sol", "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "algorithmVersion": "expected-points-v2", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "yahooOrder": 5, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "IND", "name": "Indianapolis Colts", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "restDays": 14 }, "predictedWinner": "MIN", "modelWinProbability": 0.7230232149824424, "rankingScore": 72.30232149824424, "winProbability": 0.7230232149824424, "confidencePoints": 13, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Minnesota Vikings are favored by 6.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Minnesota Vikings averaged 20.3 points and Indianapolis Colts 24. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Minnesota Vikings do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's defense, home field and extra rest support the pick. The unbeaten Vikings have allowed 12.8 points per game across five games; Indianapolis has allowed 27.3 across six.", "In the latest three-game samples, Minnesota allowed successful plays on only 29% of defensive snaps and conceded 13.0 points per game. Indianapolis averaged 24.0 points", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor Minnesota at roughly 71%. 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 95, "underdogPickPct": 5, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 8.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.7, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "MIN", "underdog": "IND" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T01:05:00.442123Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.48, "yesAsk": 0.49 } }, 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"unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 14, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "enclosed", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "sheltered", "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "dome" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, 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"home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "58f0fba741548d4554685cf3ef61b4c069fb8e8adf81b65cdd4727c33aaffd2e" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "totalLine": 41.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.705033164260632 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoritePickPct": 95, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.715, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z" } }, { "id": "0b450ca7f7f2e41e987002472e2d483df7d5c355268edd6602ad71c34522c0bc", "season": 2026, "week": 7, "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.291Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "438476abebea108ef9d50e36e3ca7fc838f49c3c37971cfabc9cb6ad2d0c2043", "publicationSourceRef": "be5c23264accd869e5796dc89aa4a32e3cc76a150ec008559f1109cf3a6e61cd", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-6.1-sol", "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "algorithmVersion": "expected-points-v2", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "yahooOrder": 6, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "MIA", "name": "Miami Dolphins", "restDays": 14 }, "home": { "abbr": "NYJ", "name": "New York Jets", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "NYJ", "modelWinProbability": 0.6588049147442326, "rankingScore": 65.88049147442327, "winProbability": 0.6588049147442326, "confidencePoints": 10, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "New York Jets are favored by 4.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 67% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New York Jets averaged 16 points and Miami Dolphins 14.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "New York Jets do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Jets' defensive advantage and home field make them the pick against winless Miami. New York has allowed 20.3 points per game across six games, compared with Miami's", "Both offenses remain limited: over three games, the Jets averaged 16.0 points and Miami 14.7. The Jets' defense performed better per play and allowed successful plays less", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor New York at approximately 67%–69%, not the 92% suggested by Yahoo's confidence-pool share. Miami has an extra week of rest, and" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 190, "homeMoneyline": -230, "totalLine": 38.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.33099297893681046, "homeProbability": 0.6690070210631895, "overround": 0.04179728317659359, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 190, "homeMoneyline": -230 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "NYJ", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 92, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "MIA-NYJ", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 92, "underdogPickPct": 8, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 92, "underdogPickPct": 8, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.1, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 71, "underdogPickPct": 29, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.2, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 92, "underdogPickPct": 8, 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1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:06:00.407282Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:59:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.68, "yesAsk": 0.69 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "NYJ", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [ "divisional" ], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T15:57:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 228254, 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "4ca83dab801f3a3ac3d26c43cb48e8658a7b18a972d5f45c5704c1547a4fa4d8" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "totalLine": 38.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6690070210631895 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoritePickPct": 92, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 5.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.685, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z" } }, { "id": "439cdaa4d1be570b6b7d1b110e94cef3887b82946bd28bd1917e1b77afd146fa", "season": 2026, "week": 7, "gameId": "2026_07_TB_CAR", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.291Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "d65f10e28dbaa053ffd657dd5973c7f725b17d8769830f3aacdfbe03fb6b7409", "publicationSourceRef": "be5c23264accd869e5796dc89aa4a32e3cc76a150ec008559f1109cf3a6e61cd", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-6.1-sol", "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "algorithmVersion": "expected-points-v2", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_07_TB_CAR", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "TB", "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "CAR", "name": "Carolina Panthers", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "CAR", "modelWinProbability": 0.6461582406471184, "rankingScore": 64.61582406471183, "winProbability": 0.6461582406471184, "confidencePoints": 6, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Carolina Panthers are favored by 3.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 63% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Carolina Panthers averaged 25 points and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Carolina Panthers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Carolina's more productive offense and home field earn the pick. Across five games, the Panthers average 29.2 points; Tampa Bay averages 19.8 across six.", "In three-game samples, Carolina averaged 25.0 points versus Tampa Bay's 19.0 and gained more value per offensive play. The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor Carolina", "Tampa Bay's improving defense is the specific risk: it has allowed 19.7 points per game over three games and performed better per play than Carolina's defense. This remains" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CAR", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192, "totalLine": 44.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.3690596562184025, "homeProbability": 0.6309403437815976, "overround": 0.04214963119072701, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "CAR", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 91, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "CAR-TB", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 91, 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"underdogAvgConfidence": 4.2, "favoriteRecord": "3-2 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "1-5 (1-1)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 77, "underdogPickPct": 23, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.6, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.6, "favoriteRecord": "3-2 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "1-5 (1-1)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 91, "underdogPickPct": 9, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.6, 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "f42af0ad00152742eb309edda2d01c40ae990346bff52c9a8589ccc9e2ba1ca2" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_TB_CAR", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Bank of America Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CAR", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "totalLine": 44.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6309403437815976 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CAR", "favoritePickPct": 91, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CAR", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CAR", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.615, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z" } }, { "id": "1995ca119094d379fad0e9d3afd4987435406a4a7e2f1101e91d7312f24ea179", "season": 2026, "week": 7, "gameId": "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.291Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "9f2b312c8e9ab37fc00520f98453f0ca3becb19eefd89135b954907c5ef76235", "publicationSourceRef": "be5c23264accd869e5796dc89aa4a32e3cc76a150ec008559f1109cf3a6e61cd", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-6.1-sol", "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "algorithmVersion": "expected-points-v2", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "yahooOrder": 8, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "CIN", "name": "Cincinnati Bengals", "restDays": 14 }, "home": { "abbr": "BAL", "name": "Baltimore Ravens", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "BAL", "modelWinProbability": 0.5749417448923246, "rankingScore": 57.49417448923246, "winProbability": 0.5749417448923246, "confidencePoints": 5, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Baltimore Ravens are favored by 2.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 57% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Baltimore Ravens averaged 21.3 points and Cincinnati Bengals 25. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Baltimore Ravens do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Baltimore's recent defense and home field provide the edge. Across three games, the Ravens allowed 18.0 points per game versus Cincinnati's 25.3 and surrendered explosive plays", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline put Baltimore around 57%; Yahoo's confidence-pool share is nearly even at 51% for the Ravens.", "Cincinnati is a credible upset threat after 14 days of rest versus Baltimore's seven. 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{ "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 73, "underdogPickPct": 27, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 57, "underdogPickPct": 43, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 74, "underdogPickPct": 26, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 58, "underdogPickPct": 42, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.7, "underdogAvgConfidence": 5.2, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 74, "underdogPickPct": 26, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "CHI", "underdog": "NE" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-16T01:05:00.33331Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.45, "yesAsk": 0.46 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.595, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:05:00.562467Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.59, "yesAsk": 0.6 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "CHI", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 0, "ifPickDisagrees": -1 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [ "short-rest" ], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 4, "shortRest": true }, "venue": { "stadium": "Soldier Field", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Soldier Field", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_NE_CHI", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 48254, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 48254, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_07_NE_CHI", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "missing-unverified" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "missing-unverified" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "57c51440fdbab0a9cf9952f8af402c5a91f8b93663b25eb69421ef19b6a57fca" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_NE_CHI", "kickoff": "2026-10-23T00:15:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Soldier Field", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "totalLine": 50.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5720596355604638 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoritePickPct": 74, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CHI", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.595, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-23T00:10:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-22T22:45:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_PIT_NO", "yahooOrder": 2, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "09:30", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 am EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "PIT", "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "NO", "name": "New Orleans Saints", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "PIT", "modelWinProbability": 0.6570068493150685, "rankingScore": 65.70068493150684, "winProbability": 0.6570068493150685, "confidencePoints": 8, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3.5 points at a neutral site. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 62% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Pittsburgh Steelers averaged 28 points and New Orleans Saints 23.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Pittsburgh Steelers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Pittsburgh has the better recent matchup on both sides of the ball. Over three games, the Steelers averaged 28.0 points and allowed 22.7; New Orleans averaged 23.7 and allowed 31.7", "Pittsburgh sustained successful offensive plays more often, while its defense allowed successful plays on just 40% of snaps versus the Saints' 49%. The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "neutral-site", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "neutral-site", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": -180, "homeMoneyline": 150, "totalLine": 44.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.6164383561643836, "homeProbability": 0.3835616438356164, "overround": 0.04285714285714293, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": -180, "homeMoneyline": 150 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "PIT", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 67, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "NO-PIT", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 am EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "favoriteIsHome": false, "underdogIsHome": true, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (0-3)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 44, "underdogPickPct": 56, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (0-3)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.3, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (0-3)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 46, "underdogPickPct": 54, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.3, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (0-3)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "PIT", "underdogAbbr": "NO", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.3, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (0-3)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "PIT", "underdog": "NO" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-18T16:05:01.968198Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.47, "yesAsk": 0.48 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "PIT", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.635, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:05:00.562467Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:59:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.63, "yesAsk": 0.64 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "PIT", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Stade de France", "locationType": "Neutral", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": true, "enclosureType": "unknown", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "unknown", "roof": null, "surface": "sportturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Stade de France", "location": "Neutral", "roof": "dome" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_PIT_NO", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [ "unverified-event-roof" ] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 83, "underdogPickPct": 17, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.4, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.3, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "1-5 (0-3)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "CLE", "underdog": "TEN" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T01:05:00.328422Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.5, "yesAsk": 0.51 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.545, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:05:00.562467Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.54, "yesAsk": 0.55 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "CLE", "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 0, "ifPickDisagrees": -1 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Nissan Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Nissan Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 48254, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 48254, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "3d54446f647f2219c73e13b77605ad433e40ac5b2c06d07115959beecd9a79e6" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Nissan Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "totalLine": 38.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.4572564612326044 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CLE", "favoritePickPct": 83, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CLE", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 1.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CLE", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.545, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "yahooOrder": 5, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "IND", "name": "Indianapolis Colts", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "MIN", "name": "Minnesota Vikings", "restDays": 14 }, "predictedWinner": "MIN", "modelWinProbability": 0.7230232149824424, "rankingScore": 72.30232149824424, "winProbability": 0.7230232149824424, "confidencePoints": 13, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Minnesota Vikings are favored by 6.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Minnesota Vikings averaged 20.3 points and Indianapolis Colts 24. The opponent has the stronger scoring average. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Minnesota Vikings do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Minnesota's defense, home field and extra rest support the pick. The unbeaten Vikings have allowed 12.8 points per game across five games; Indianapolis has allowed 27.3 across six.", "In the latest three-game samples, Minnesota allowed successful plays on only 29% of defensive snaps and conceded 13.0 points per game. Indianapolis averaged 24.0 points", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor Minnesota at roughly 71%. The main risk is Minnesota's own offense: just 20.3 points per game and successful plays on 36%" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "Minnesota-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "Minnesota-defensive-edge", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "MIN", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 225, "homeMoneyline": -278, "totalLine": 41.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.2949668357393679, "homeProbability": 0.705033164260632, "overround": 0.043142043142043285, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 225, "homeMoneyline": -278 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "MIN", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 95, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "IND-MIN", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 95, "underdogPickPct": 5, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 70, "underdogPickPct": 30, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 95, "underdogPickPct": 5, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 8.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.7, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 75, "underdogPickPct": 25, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.6, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "MIN", "underdogAbbr": "IND", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 95, "underdogPickPct": 5, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 8.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.7, "favoriteRecord": "5-0 (2-0)", "underdogRecord": "2-4 (1-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "MIN", "underdog": "IND" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T01:05:00.442123Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.48, "yesAsk": 0.49 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.715, "edgeStrength": "high", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:05:00.562467Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.71, "yesAsk": 0.72 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "MIN", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 14, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "enclosed", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "sheltered", "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "dome" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T15:58:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, 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"home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "58f0fba741548d4554685cf3ef61b4c069fb8e8adf81b65cdd4727c33aaffd2e" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_IND_MIN", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "dome", "surface": "sportturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "totalLine": 41.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.705033164260632 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "MIN", "favoritePickPct": 95, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "MIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.715, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "yahooOrder": 6, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "MIA", "name": "Miami Dolphins", "restDays": 14 }, "home": { "abbr": "NYJ", "name": "New York Jets", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "NYJ", "modelWinProbability": 0.6588049147442326, "rankingScore": 65.88049147442327, "winProbability": 0.6588049147442326, "confidencePoints": 10, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "New York Jets are favored by 4.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 67% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New York Jets averaged 16 points and Miami Dolphins 14.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "New York Jets do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Jets' defensive advantage and home field make them the pick against winless Miami. New York has allowed 20.3 points per game across six games, compared with Miami's", "Both offenses remain limited: over three games, the Jets averaged 16.0 points and Miami 14.7. The Jets' defense performed better per play and allowed successful plays less", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor New York at approximately 67%–69%, not the 92% suggested by Yahoo's confidence-pool share. Miami has an extra week of rest, and" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 190, "homeMoneyline": -230, "totalLine": 38.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.33099297893681046, "homeProbability": 0.6690070210631895, "overround": 0.04179728317659359, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 190, "homeMoneyline": -230 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "NYJ", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 92, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "MIA-NYJ", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 92, "underdogPickPct": 8, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 67, "underdogPickPct": 33, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "2-4 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "0-5 (0-3)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "NYJ", "underdogAbbr": "MIA", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 92, "underdogPickPct": 8, 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1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-13T04:06:00.407282Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-20T15:59:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.68, "yesAsk": 0.69 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "NYJ", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [ "divisional" ], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { 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"maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-20T15:59:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "assessedAgeMs": 108254, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "4ca83dab801f3a3ac3d26c43cb48e8658a7b18a972d5f45c5704c1547a4fa4d8" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "totalLine": 38.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.6690070210631895 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "NYJ", "favoritePickPct": 92, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 5.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "NYJ", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.685, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_TB_CAR", "yahooOrder": 7, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "TB", "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "CAR", "name": "Carolina Panthers", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "CAR", "modelWinProbability": 0.6461582406471184, "rankingScore": 64.61582406471183, "winProbability": 0.6461582406471184, "confidencePoints": 6, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Carolina Panthers are favored by 3.5 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 63% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Carolina Panthers averaged 25 points and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Carolina Panthers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Carolina's more productive offense and home field earn the pick. Across five games, the Panthers average 29.2 points; Tampa Bay averages 19.8 across six.", "In three-game samples, Carolina averaged 25.0 points versus Tampa Bay's 19.0 and gained more value per offensive play. The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor Carolina", "Tampa Bay's improving defense is the specific risk: it has allowed 19.7 points per game over three games and performed better per play than Carolina's defense. This remains" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "divisional", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CAR", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192, "totalLine": 44.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.3690596562184025, "homeProbability": 0.6309403437815976, "overround": 0.04214963119072701, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 160, "homeMoneyline": -192 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "CAR", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 91, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "CAR-TB", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CAR", "underdogAbbr": "TB", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T16:00:48.254Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 91, 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 81% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Houston Texans averaged 30 points and New York Giants 30. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Houston Texans do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Houston's offensive efficiency supports the home pick. Over three games, the Texans averaged 30.0 points, generated strong value per play and allowed sacks on only 2% of", "The Giants also averaged 30.0 points over three games, but Houston allowed 22.7 points per game versus New York's 28.3. That supports Houston without making the Giants'", "The sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline favor Houston at approximately 80%. The strongest caution is Houston's uneven defense: it allowed 34, 3 and 31 points in its last three" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "measured-volatility", "Giants-offense-uptrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "measured-volatility", "Giants-offense-uptrend", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-high-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "HOU", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10, "edgeStrength": "high", "awayMoneyline": 400, "homeMoneyline": -535, "totalLine": 42.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "8942c9c79a61467c9f743e1d9a90881a933b38a2f1581a790e630e319d725da6" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Reliant Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": null, "surface": "astroturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "HOU", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10, "totalLine": 42.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.8081570996978852 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "HOU", "favoritePickPct": 92, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "HOU", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 9.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "high", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "HOU", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.795, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "high", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T16:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "yahooOrder": 10, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "16:05", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 4:05 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T20:05:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "DEN", "name": "Denver Broncos", "restDays": 10 }, "home": { "abbr": "ARI", "name": "Arizona Cardinals", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "DEN", "modelWinProbability": 0.6770218728968368, "rankingScore": 67.70218728968368, "winProbability": 0.6770218728968368, "confidencePoints": 11, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Denver Broncos are favored by 4.5 points on the road. 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Arizona's defense is volatile rather than uniformly" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "road-favorite", "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "road-favorite", "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "DEN", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": -238, "homeMoneyline": 195, "totalLine": 43.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.6750312469954812, "homeProbability": 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "704d236107b973507acf3e1e866a3396eb8552f0889e67baf066ae530b5835d5" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_LA_LV", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T20:25:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Allegiant Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "dome", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "LA", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "totalLine": 47.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.33635187580853815 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "LA", "favoritePickPct": 71, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "LA", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 4.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "LA", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.655, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-7" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-25T20:20:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_07_KC_SEA", "yahooOrder": 13, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "20:20", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 8:20 pm EDT", "iso": "2026-10-26T00:20:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "KC", "name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "SEA", "name": "Seattle Seahawks", "restDays": 10 }, "predictedWinner": "KC", "modelWinProbability": 0.5340555555555555, "rankingScore": 53.40555555555555, "winProbability": 0.5340555555555555, "confidencePoints": 1, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": false, "policyWarnings": [], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-20T16:02:30.235Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-20T16:00:50.746Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": -1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": { "away": 23, "home": 20 }, "isTiebreaker": true, "evidence": [ "This is an upset pick: bookmakers favor Seattle Seahawks by 2.5 points. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 44% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Kansas City Chiefs averaged 25.3 points and Seattle Seahawks 24.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Kansas City Chiefs do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Kansas City's offensive advantage narrowly outweighs Seattle's home field. Over three games, the Chiefs produced successful plays on 49% of snaps versus Seattle's 37%, while both", "Kansas City averaged 25.3 points and allowed 14.3 over three games; Seattle averaged 24.3 and allowed 24.0. Across the season, Kansas City is 5–0 through five games and Seattle", "This is an upset selection against both the sportsbook and fresh Kalshi moneyline, which give Seattle approximately 56%. 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The strongest counterargument is recent form: the Patriots average 33.3 points over their last three, far" ], "rawModelFlags": [], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "short-rest", "TNF-volatility", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "primetime", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CHI", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 130, "homeMoneyline": -155, "totalLine": 50.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.4170073589533933, "homeProbability": 0.5829926410466066, "overround": 0.04262574595055413, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 130, "homeMoneyline": -155 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "CHI", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 76, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "raw": { "key": "CHI-NE", "dateDisplayEt": "Thursday, Oct 22, 8:15 pm EDT", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=", "favoritePickPct": 73, "underdogPickPct": 27, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 56, "underdogPickPct": 44, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 76, "underdogPickPct": 24, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.2, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 58, "underdogPickPct": 42, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.4, "underdogAvgConfidence": 6.1, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CHI", "underdogAbbr": "NE", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=7&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 76, "underdogPickPct": 24, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.2, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (2-1)", "underdogRecord": "4-2 (1-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "CHI", "underdog": "NE" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-16T01:05:00.33331Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-22T22:16:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.54, "yesAsk": 0.55 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.595, "edgeStrength": "normal", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", 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"status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" } ], "unknownInjuryCount": 9, "injuryCoverage": "listed-players-only" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [ { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/injuries/injuries_2026.csv", "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" } ], "unknownInjuryCount": 4, "injuryCoverage": "listed-players-only" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T22:16:09.813Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "fec52b78599592ddd9543c85a2c3dd780a7f24fd9ba0d413d64ddf1260ba33ec" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_07_NE_CHI", "kickoff": "2026-10-23T00:15:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Soldier Field", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "grass" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Alijah Vera-Tucker", "position": "G", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Ben Brown", "position": "C", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Carlton Davis III", "position": "CB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Channing Canada", "position": "CB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Christian Elliss", "position": "LB", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Full Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Craig Woodson", "position": "S", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Full Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Karon Prunty", "position": "CB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Kevin Byard", "position": "S", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Full Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Morgan Moses", "position": "T", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [ { "player": "Jack Sanborn", "position": "LB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Kyle Monangai", "position": "RB", "severity": "out", "gameStatus": "Out", "practiceStatus": "Did Not Participate In Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "T.J. Edwards", "position": "LB", "severity": "doubtful", "gameStatus": "Doubtful", "practiceStatus": "Limited Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null }, { "player": "Tyrique Stevenson", "position": "CB", "severity": "questionable", "gameStatus": "Questionable", "practiceStatus": "Full Participation in Practice", "expectedUsage": "unknown", "confirmedAvailability": null } ] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "totalLine": 50.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.5829926410466066 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CHI", "favoritePickPct": 76, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CHI", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 2.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "normal", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CHI", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.595, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "normal", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "normal", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-22T22:17:08.212Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "final-2026-7-thursday-2026-10-22-2015" ], "type": "final", "label": "Thursday full-week final", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_07_NE_CHI", "2026_07_PIT_NO", "2026_07_CIN_BAL", "2026_07_CLE_TEN", "2026_07_IND_MIN", "2026_07_MIA_NYJ", "2026_07_NYG_HOU", "2026_07_SF_ATL", "2026_07_TB_CAR", "2026_07_DEN_ARI", "2026_07_GB_DET", "2026_07_LA_LV", "2026_07_KC_SEA", "2026_07_DAL_PHI" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-10-23T00:10:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-10-22T22:45:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-20T10:55:52.751Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-22T22:17:08.212Z", "locked": true, "lockedAt": "2026-10-23T00:10:00.000Z" }, { "gameId": "2026_07_PIT_NO", "yahooOrder": 2, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-10-25", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "09:30", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 am EDT", "iso": "2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "PIT", "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "NO", "name": "New Orleans Saints", "restDays": 7 }, "predictedWinner": "PIT", "modelWinProbability": 0.628, "rankingScore": 62.8, "winProbability": 0.628, "confidencePoints": 8, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-25T11:31:21.742Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-25T11:31:07.400Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 0, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3 points at a neutral site. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 59% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Pittsburgh Steelers averaged 28 points and New Orleans Saints 23.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Pittsburgh Steelers list receiver Ben Skowronek and cornerback Brandin Echols as Out. Those absences reduce their available depth." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Pittsburgh's improving offense and stronger defense support a 63% win estimate. Over their last three games, the Steelers averaged 28 points scored and 22.7 allowed, versus 23.7 Sc" ], "rawModelFlags": [], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-normal-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "PIT", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 3, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": -162, "homeMoneyline": 136, "totalLine": 43.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.593369754159424, "homeProbability": 0.4066302458405761, "overround": 0.042049424246344946, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": -162, "homeMoneyline": 136 } }, 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