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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 77% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Jacksonville Jaguars averaged 24 points and Indianapolis Colts 17.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Jacksonville Jaguars do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 77% win chance.", "Over the last three games, New England Patriots averaged 31.7 points and Miami Dolphins 20.7. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "New England Patriots do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "New England's offensive improvement and longer rest favor the Patriots. 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"kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T15:59:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "assessedAgeMs": 138812, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "assessedAgeMs": 78812, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-27T16:01:21.739Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" }, "home": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "rosterTurnover": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "injuries": [], "unknownInjuryCount": 0, "injuryCoverage": "not-yet-due" } }, "weather": { "status": "unverified", "value": null, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceRef": null, "reason": "pregame-observation-clock-unverified" }, "activation": "disabled-untrained-features", "note": "Unknown is not healthy or zero. Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "08a4b3e56826fe257dcbdc9a92d0218a7bb01e781e646b241814949358e6d0a8" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Paycor Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10, "totalLine": 46.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.8316498316498315 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoritePickPct": 99, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "high", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.835, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "high", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-8" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_08_CAR_GB", "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "2026_08_ATL_TB", "2026_08_BAL_BUF", "2026_08_CLE_PIT", "2026_08_IND_JAX", "2026_08_LV_NYJ", "2026_08_MIN_DET", "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "2026_08_LAC_LA", "2026_08_KC_DEN", "2026_08_NE_MIA", "2026_08_PHI_WAS", "2026_08_CHI_SEA" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-11-01T17:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-11-01T16:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-27T11:11:19.361Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z" } }, { "id": "c74c9809ff3e697353f8c1cda4d98fcd8dbcc819b4cfcc625f17df24704768ff", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "gameId": "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-27T16:01:21.739Z", "generatedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "preparedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "publishedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.737Z", "publicationState": "committed", "publicationScope": "canonical-local-file", "publicDeployedAt": null, "lockDeadline": "2026-11-01T17:55:00.000Z", "sourceRef": "6c6dcccff648ac76744ef0efe5f1e6f530bd4d568848dc454aadc0396ca708fc", "publicationSourceRef": "75d29bd32c8bab11dafbc48a02b9b0003d8e238be7c7c980a63799d4e98ac8d9", "provenance": "captured-at-generation-source-times-may-be-unknown", "modelVersion": "gpt-6.1-sol", "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "algorithmVersion": "expected-points-v2", "forecast": { "gameId": "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "yahooOrder": 4, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-11-01", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 pm EST", "iso": "2026-11-01T18:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "ARI", "name": "Arizona Cardinals", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Cowboys", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "DAL", "modelWinProbability": 0.7141804979253111, "rankingScore": 71.41804979253111, "winProbability": 0.7141804979253111, "confidencePoints": 10, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-27T16:01:21.739Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Dallas Cowboys are favored by 6 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Dallas Cowboys averaged 22.3 points and Arizona Cardinals 18.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Dallas Cowboys do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Dallas has the stronger offensive matchup against an Arizona defense allowing 29.7 points per game through seven games. Sportsbook and Kalshi moneylines put Dallas around 71–73%.", "Over their last three games, Dallas averaged 22.3 points and Arizona 18.3; Dallas also sustained successful offensive plays more frequently, 49% versus 43%.", "The risk is Dallas' uneven production: its last three scoring outputs were 16, 13 and 38, with an 11.1-point standard deviation. This supports a soft volatility preference, not a 8" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-unknown", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "DAL", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 230, "homeMoneyline": -285, "totalLine": 54.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.2904564315352697, "homeProbability": 0.7095435684647302, "overround": 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"https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 89, "underdogPickPct": 11, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.1, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 58, "underdogPickPct": 42, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.3, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 89, "underdogPickPct": 11, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.1, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "DAL", "underdog": "ARI" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "DAL", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-25T22:06:00.518245Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-27T16:01:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.49, "yesAsk": 0.5 } }, 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"unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 6, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "unknown", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "unknown", "roof": null, "surface": "matrixturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Los Angeles Rams averaged 28.3 points and Los Angeles Chargers 15.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Los Angeles Rams do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "The Rams' offensive advantage is substantial. 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"poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CIN", "underdogAbbr": "TEN", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 99, "underdogPickPct": 1, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 9.9, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.5, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "1-6 (1-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "CIN", "underdogAbbr": "TEN", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 61, "underdogPickPct": 39, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.4, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.7, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "1-6 (1-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "CIN", "underdogAbbr": "TEN", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 99, "underdogPickPct": 1, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 9.9, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.5, "favoriteRecord": "4-2 (1-1)", "underdogRecord": "1-6 (1-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "CIN", "underdog": "TEN" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10.5, "edgeStrength": "high", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-25T22:06:00.518245Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-27T15:59:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.48, "yesAsk": 0.5 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.835, "edgeStrength": "high", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-20T04:06:00.5311Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-27T16:00:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.83, "yesAsk": 0.84 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "CIN", "spreadEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "high", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 2, "ifPickDisagrees": -3 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 7, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "Paycor Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "outdoor", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "exposed", "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "Paycor Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "outdoors" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T15:59:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "assessedAgeMs": 138812, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiSpread" }, "moneyline": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T16:00:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "assessedAgeMs": 78812, "maxAgeMs": 900000, "evidenceRef": "sourceHealth.kalshiMoneyline" } } }, "footballResearch": { "version": "football-context-shadow-v1", "status": "shadow-only", "gameId": "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-27T16:01:21.739Z", "teams": { "away": { "starter": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "not-supplied" }, "lineup": { "status": "unknown", "value": null, 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Fit and ablate only after prospective coverage and chronological validation; historical target-game QB/weather fields are excluded.", "hash": "08a4b3e56826fe257dcbdc9a92d0218a7bb01e781e646b241814949358e6d0a8" } }, "method": "openai", "analysisSnapshot": { "promptVersion": "2026.11-injury-aware-confidence", "gameId": "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00.000Z", "venue": { "stadium": "Paycor Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "neutralSite": false, "roof": "outdoors", "surface": "fieldturf" }, "weather": { "wind": "unknown", "precipitation": "unknown", "temperature": "unknown" }, "injuries": { "away": { "qb": [], "key": [] }, "home": { "qb": [], "key": [] } }, "lineup": { "away": { "starter": null, "lineup": null }, "home": { "starter": null, "lineup": null } }, "sportsbook": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10, "totalLine": 46.5, "homeWinProbability": 0.8316498316498315 }, "yahoo": { "favorite": "CIN", "favoritePickPct": 99, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null }, "kalshi": { "spreadFavorite": "CIN", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 10.5, "spreadEdgeStrength": "high", "spreadQuality": "high", "moneylineFavorite": "CIN", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.835, "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "moneylineQuality": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "high", "signalEligible": true, "exclusionReason": null } }, "lastAnalyzedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "analysisCheckpoint": { "ids": [ "initial-2026-8" ], "type": "initial", "label": "Tuesday preliminary analysis", "targetGameIds": [ "2026_08_CAR_GB", "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "2026_08_ATL_TB", "2026_08_BAL_BUF", "2026_08_CLE_PIT", "2026_08_IND_JAX", "2026_08_LV_NYJ", "2026_08_MIN_DET", "2026_08_TEN_CIN", "2026_08_LAC_LA", "2026_08_KC_DEN", "2026_08_NE_MIA", "2026_08_PHI_WAS", "2026_08_CHI_SEA" ] }, "lockDeadline": "2026-11-01T17:55:00.000Z", "cardDeadline": "2026-11-01T16:30:00.000Z", "lateGenerated": false, "eligibleForScoring": true, "forecastStatus": "valid", "createdAt": "2026-10-27T11:11:19.361Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "locked": false, "lockedAt": null }, { "gameId": "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "yahooOrder": 4, "kickoff": { "date": "2026-11-01", "weekday": "Sunday", "timeEt": "13:00", "yahooDisplayEt": "Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 pm EST", "iso": "2026-11-01T18:00:00.000Z" }, "away": { "abbr": "ARI", "name": "Arizona Cardinals", "restDays": 7 }, "home": { "abbr": "DAL", "name": "Dallas Cowboys", "restDays": 6 }, "predictedWinner": "DAL", "modelWinProbability": 0.7141804979253111, "rankingScore": 71.41804979253111, "winProbability": 0.7141804979253111, "confidencePoints": 10, "confidenceCap": 7, "capRelaxedForRankUniqueness": true, "policyWarnings": [ "preferred-cap-exceeded-probability-order" ], "allocationPolicy": "expected-points-v2", "allocationSnapshotAt": "2026-10-27T16:02:28.696Z", "featureVersion": "canonical-context-v1", "decisionCutoff": "2026-10-27T16:01:21.739Z", "adjustmentLedger": [ { "adjustmentId": "kalshi-paired-v2", "requestedDelta": 1, "effectiveDelta": 0, "units": "confidence-points", "probabilityDelta": null, "probabilityUnits": "probability-percentage-points", "evidenceRefs": [ "predictionMarkets.kalshiSignal" ], "reflectedInProbabilityBaseline": true, "objective": "expected-points-v2", "reason": "ordinal-advice-only-no-probability-conversion" } ], "baseline": { "method": "model-final-probability", "provider": "OpenAI", "marketInformationIncluded": true }, "projectedScores": null, "isTiebreaker": false, "evidence": [ "Dallas Cowboys are favored by 6 points at home. Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 71% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Dallas Cowboys averaged 22.3 points and Arizona Cardinals 18.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Dallas Cowboys do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Dallas has the stronger offensive matchup against an Arizona defense allowing 29.7 points per game through seven games. Sportsbook and Kalshi moneylines put Dallas around 71–73%.", "Over their last three games, Dallas averaged 22.3 points and Arizona 18.3; Dallas also sustained successful offensive plays more frequently, 49% versus 43%.", "The risk is Dallas' uneven production: its last three scoring outputs were 16, 13 and 38, with an 11.1-point standard deviation. This supports a soft volatility preference, not a 8" ], "rawModelFlags": [ "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "kalshi-spread-freshness-unknown", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh" ], "evidenceReferences": [ "market", "teamData.away.metrics/injuries", "teamData.home.metrics/injuries", "venue", "away.restDays/home.restDays" ], "flags": [ "measured-volatility", "injury-reports-not-yet-due", "recent-volatility", "high-confidence-gate", "five-pillar-gate", "sportsbook-agreement", "kalshi-agreement", "yahoo-public-agreement", "kalshi-spread-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moneyline-freshness-fresh", "kalshi-moderate-agreement" ], "marketSnapshot": { "sportsbook": { "favorite": "DAL", "state": "directional", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "awayMoneyline": 230, "homeMoneyline": -285, "totalLine": 54.5, "probabilityBaseline": { "method": "two-way-overround-normalized", "awayProbability": 0.2904564315352697, "homeProbability": 0.7095435684647302, "overround": 0.04329004329004338, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "raw": { "awayMoneyline": 230, "homeMoneyline": -285 } }, "observedAt": null, "retrievedAt": null, "sourceUrl": null }, "yahoo": { "selectedTeam": "DAL", "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "pickPct": 89, "eligible": true, "exclusionReason": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "raw": { "key": "ARI-DAL", "dateDisplayEt": "Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 pm EST", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "favoriteIsHome": true, "underdogIsHome": false, "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "explicitTiebreakOrder": null, "distributions": { "straightUp": { "poolType": "straightUp", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=", "favoritePickPct": 89, "underdogPickPct": 11, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "spreadOnly": { "poolType": "spreadOnly", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=s", "favoritePickPct": 57, "underdogPickPct": 43, "favoriteAvgConfidence": null, "underdogAvgConfidence": null, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "confidenceOnly": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 89, "underdogPickPct": 11, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.1, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "spreadAndConfidence": { "poolType": "spreadAndConfidence", "poolCategory": "against-the-spread", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=sc", "favoritePickPct": 58, "underdogPickPct": 42, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 5.5, "underdogAvgConfidence": 4.3, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" } }, "primaryPoolType": "confidenceOnly", "primary": { "poolType": "confidenceOnly", "poolCategory": "straight-up", "favoriteAbbr": "DAL", "underdogAbbr": "ARI", "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUrl": "https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/pickdistribution?gid=&week=8&type=c", "favoritePickPct": 89, "underdogPickPct": 11, "favoriteAvgConfidence": 6.8, "underdogAvgConfidence": 3.1, "favoriteRecord": "3-4 (1-2)", "underdogRecord": "2-5 (2-2)" }, "poolCategory": "straight-up", "categoryAdjustmentEligible": true, "categoryExclusionReason": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceObservedAt": null, "favorite": "DAL", "underdog": "ARI" } }, "kalshi": { "spread": { "favorite": "DAL", "favoriteSpreadPoints": 6.5, "edgeStrength": "moderate", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "state": "directional", "spreadMethod": "nearest-50-percent-threshold-estimate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-25T22:06:00.518245Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-27T16:01:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.49, "yesAsk": 0.5 } }, "moneyline": { "favorite": "DAL", "favoriteWinProbability": 0.725, "edgeStrength": "high", "quality": "high", "providerCount": 1, "probabilityUnits": "fraction", "state": "directional", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-20T04:06:00.5311Z", "quoteVerification": { "status": "corroborated", "asOf": "2026-10-27T16:01:00.000Z", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "basis": "selected-contract-candle-close", "reason": null, "yesBid": 0.72, "yesAsk": 0.73 } }, "signal": { "favorite": "DAL", "spreadEdgeStrength": "moderate", "moneylineEdgeStrength": "high", "combinedEdgeStrength": "moderate", "eligible": true, "confidenceAdjustment": { "ifPickAgrees": 1, "ifPickDisagrees": -2 }, "exclusionReason": null, "adjustmentUnits": "confidence-points", "spreadState": "directional", "moneylineState": "directional" } } }, "contextSnapshot": { "featureVersion": "context-v2", "flags": [], "selectedRoadDivisional": false, "selectedStarterAvailability": { "state": "unknown", "player": null, "evidence": [], "warnings": [ "starter-availability-unverified" ] }, "rest": { "days": 6, "shortRest": false }, "venue": { "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "locationType": "Home", "city": null, "country": null, "timezone": null, "neutralSite": false, "enclosureType": "unknown", "roofState": "unknown", "weatherExposure": "unknown", "roof": null, "surface": "matrixturf", "temperatureF": null, "windMph": null, "rawProvider": { "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "location": "Home", "roof": "" }, "sources": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv" ], "effectiveForEvent": "2026_08_ARI_DAL", "verifiedAt": null, "sourceObservedAt": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:18.812Z", "warnings": [] }, "kalshiFreshness": { "version": "kalshi-source-freshness-v3", "sources": { "spread": { "status": "fresh", "scope": "selected-contract-candle-corroboration", "observedAt": "2026-10-27T16:01:00.000Z", "publishedAt": null, "retrievedAt": 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Sportsbook odds suggest roughly a 62% win chance.", "Over the last three games, Pittsburgh Steelers averaged 25.3 points and Cleveland Browns 17.3. Recent scoring alone does not decide the matchup.", "Pittsburgh Steelers do not yet have a verified injury report in this feed. Check for updates before kickoff." ], "rawModelEvidence": [ "Pittsburgh's improving offense and 3–0 home record provide the edge. The sportsbook and Kalshi moneylines favor the Steelers at approximately 62–64%.", "Over their last three games, Pittsburgh scored 25.3 points per game versus Cleveland's 17.3; both defenses allowed 17.", "Cleveland's defense remains a substantial obstacle, allowing successful offensive plays only 38% of the time over that three-game sample. 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